I’m not worried about Bitcoin scalability, but I am losing sleep over Ethereum

Here are my assumptions about the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain, compared to Bitcoin’s:

  • “Turing vulnerable”, i.e. has a much larger attack surface
  • Less backwards compatible
  • On track towards a more centralized future
  • Transaction finality is less certain
  • Its proposed proof-of-stake mining algorithm won’t be more efficient than proof-of-work
  • Will suffer more blockchain bloat than Bitcoin, leading to more risky design paths such as sharding.

However, the following observations give me pause:

  • Bitcoin faces a scaling bottleneck with no clear short term solution
  • Ethereum’s current on-chain tx fees are much lower than Bitcoin’s
  • Its great flexibility makes it attractive to developers
  • Several projects are making the transition to the Ethereum platform, or are creating applications for it: Brave, Storj, Shapeshift.
  • The NY Department of Financial Services (DFS) has given Coinbase official authorization to offer ETH to its customers.
  • What if the current lull in attacks to the network can be maintained, or if the market comes to accept hard-fork interventionism?
  • What if the market majority wants a more centralized—governed—cryptocurrency?
  • What if Ethereum’s developer community is capitalizing on Bitcoin’s deadlock and is gaining enough momentum to take the upper hand?
  • What if Ethereum solves its scaling conundrum with payment channels? According to Raiden’s team lead, the software is getting close to launch.
  • What if ETH finds a way to make PoS work, and people buy into the good sounding narrative that PoW is more wasteful?

In short, what if Ethereum manages to become a good enough cryptocurrency and thereby wins this protocol war?

On the flip side, I see the following:

  • Bitcoin has a consistent track record of being an immutable ledger (ideal for long term value preservation), versus ETH’s interventionist history
  • Likely higher developer activity in Bitcoin vs Ethereum
  • Bitcoin has 100 core contributors, ETH has ???
  • Core dev Vlad Zamfir: Ethereum isn’t money, safe, or scalable
  • Legal concerns about ICOs and ETH/ETC launches, SEC fallout possible
  • Buterin’s & Zamfir’s approaches to scaling (Casper) seem to diverge
  • Problematic scaling future, e.g. “mathematical proof that it is impossible to determine the ‘true’ transaction history in a proof-of-stake blockchain without an additional source of trust”, sharding
  • Future inflation rate unknown
  • Uncertain fundamental value proposition over Bitcoin’s modular design

Bitcoin also has a few aces up its sleeve:

  • Segwit can be activated via UASF, circumventing miners and allowing immediate activation of alpha status lightning payments. (If that fails, Lightning can be implemented even without segwit.)
  • Rootstock could port Ethereum’s tech to Bitcoin.
  • Sidechains are close to production-ready, don’t need segwit and allow for unfettered experimentation with additional features. (In this way, anyone who just wants cheap extra block space can find it on a sidechain.)

In that regard, here are some questions I’m hoping to find answers for:

  • What are the different challenges for implementing payment channels (lightning, raiden) on Bitcoin vs. on Ethereum?
  • What are today’s non-speculative ETH use cases? (What do people need ETH for?) And, related, what are some revenue generating ETH smart contract based businesses?
  • Are there ways to quantify the differences between Ethereum’s and Bitcoin’s security model?
  • What proxies do we have to assess the aggregate quantity and average quality of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum core development?
  • What are potential analogies with historical protocol wars?
  • What kind of security analysis has been done on blockchain bloat and sharding?

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Economist & investor. Mainly Bitcoin.

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Tuur Demeester

Tuur Demeester

Economist & investor. Mainly Bitcoin.

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